TQTradingQuery

Session behavior · MNQ

How often does a 5-minute opening range breakout on MNQ continue in the same direction for the rest of the session

48.5%

continuation rate

n=1302026-03-04 to 2026-09-06

continuation rate

48.5%

num continued

63

num failed

67

Methodology

Computed by independently generating and running analysis code against real MNQ 1-minute bars from 2026-03-04 to 2026-09-06, 25 separate times in parallel, then taking the answer the largest group of independent attempts agreed on. The exact code is shown below.

Show the code

et = to_et(bars)
rth = rth_session(et)
rth = rth.copy()
rth['date'] = trading_date(rth)

or_end = minutes_after_open_cutoff(5)

results = []
for date, day in rth.groupby('date'):
    day = day.sort_index()
    orb = day[day.index.time <= or_end]
    if orb.empty:
        continue
    or_high = orb['high'].max()
    or_low = orb['low'].min()
    rest = day[day.index.time > or_end]
    if rest.empty:
        continue
    session_close = day['close'].iloc[-1]

    # find first breakout direction after opening range
    breakout_dir = None
    breakout_idx = None
    for ts, row in rest.iterrows():
        if row['high'] > or_high:
            breakout_dir = 'up'
            breakout_idx = ts
            break
        elif row['low'] < or_low:
            breakout_dir = 'down'
            breakout_idx = ts
            break
    if breakout_dir is None:
        continue

    if breakout_dir == 'up':
        continued = session_close > or_high
    else:
        continued = session_close < or_low

    results.append(continued)

n = len(results)
if n > 0:
    rate = sum(results) / n
else:
    rate = None

result = {
    'sample_size': n,
    'continuation_rate': rate,
    'num_continued': int(sum(results)) if n > 0 else 0,
    'num_failed': int(n - sum(results)) if n > 0 else 0,
}
  • Generated and independently re-derived 25 times, then checked for logical consistency, before being shown to you -- the figures above are the answer the largest number of those independent attempts agreed on. Still a generated, one-off calculation, treat it as a rough, one-off analysis rather than a permanent fixture.

This is historical statistical information only. It is not investment advice, and past performance does not indicate future results. Trading involves risk of loss.